Reliever Bob Howry, who lists the White Sox and Cubs on his resume, made a
bold statement during the offseason. This was before the most recent trips to
the disabled list for Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, but when it comes to comparing
rotations, Howry felt the Cubs had the best in town, hands down.
''When those guys are healthy, we have four No. 1 starters in that
rotation,'' Howry said of Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux, Prior and Wood. ''I
don't know if there is another team that can say that.''
Not even the White Sox, whose rotation put on a historic display during the
2005 postseason?
''They don't have four No. 1s,'' Howry said. ''Not to take anything away from
them, they pitched great last year. They had some guys who had career years. But
when you look at guys who put up the numbers consistently, year after year, and
have the stuff, that staff doesn't match up. When they are both healthy, I think
our staff definitely takes the cake.''
When Howry made these statements during the Cubs Convention in January, he
touched more than a few nerves on the South Side. How could he be taking such an
obvious shot at the defending World Series champions?
Howry kept stressing the magic words: when healthy. When it comes to the
Cubs, that's asking a lot.
But disabled lists aside, the White Sox and Cubs have been built around their
starting pitching. Their fates in 2006 -- just as they were in 2005 -- will be
decided by the success of those rotations.
Here's a look at how the Sox and Cubs starters -- and potential starters --
size up. You decide whether Howry has a point.
THE SOX
Mark Buehrle
Since joining the rotation in 2001, no one has pitched more innings in the
majors than Buehrle (1,172-2/3). The Wheaties cover boy has learned to live in
the shadow of inferior pitchers who share Chicago with him. Wood has already
reached icon status. At 28, Wood has 15 fewer wins and one more loss in his
career than Buehrle, 27, who debuted two years after the Cubs right-hander. The
left-hander who was a 38th-round draft pick has been a model of consistency that
no other pitcher in Chicago over that time can match. Buehrle has never enjoyed
a 20-strikeout game, but he does show up every fifth day for work. He even
bounced back to earn a save in the World Series.
Freddy Garcia
Of the four returning starters to the Sox' rotation, Garcia had the worst
numbers. But that is a relative statement when you're talking about the most
dominant rotation in the majors. Garcia went 14-8, the only one of the four not
to reach 15 wins, and had a 3.87 ERA, the highest among a returning group of
Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Most other pitchers would call 14-8 and
3.87 a career year. Garcia has been a consistent performer during his career,
but it's a mystery why he is such a different pitcher at U.S. Cellular Field.
Last season, he went 10-3 with a 3.40 ERA on the road and allowed a .247 batting
average with nine home runs in 119 innings. At home, he went 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA
and allowed a .272 average with 17 home runs in 109 innings.
Jose Contreras
He was supposed to be a liability in the 2005 rotation, the pitcher with the
most suspect arm. But Contreras wound up carrying the Sox down the stretch, even
when his teammates went into a collective funk in mid-August to late September.
Working with pitching coach Don Cooper, Contreras corrected a flaw in his
mechanics and ended up topping 200 innings for the first time in his career.
Critics said he would run out of steam down the stretch. The opposite happened:
Contreras went 11-2 after the All-Star break and put on a 3-1 performance with a
complete game in the postseason.
Jon Garland
The big right-hander's critics last season kept waiting for the bottom to
fall out -- just as it had since he debuted in 2000. For the first time in his
career, Garland showed he could dominate, not just for an entire game but for a
lengthy stretch of the season. He got off to a 13-4 start, then fell back to
earth with a 5-6 mark after the All-Star break. The good news is his ERA didn't
make a similar swing, going from 3.38 before the break to 3.65 after. But
through it all, Garland showed consistency for the first time in his career.
Though the critics will return this season, waiting for the collapse, Garland
has shown he knows how to pitch in this league.
Javier Vazquez
Vazquez fits in perfectly with this rotation of innings-eaters, pitching
2152/3 innings last season. Vazquez, acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks in
the Orlando Hernandez deal, eased his control problems, walking a career-low 46
and striking out 192. His control problems, however, flared up again after the
All-Star break, raising flags. The right-hander is pitching for his fourth team
in four years. With the Contreras Project complete, Cooper has shifted his
attention to Vazquez, who allowed an alarming 35 home runs last season.
Brandon McCarthy
On any other team, the 22-year-old is in the rotation. With a stacked Sox
rotation, McCarthy must bide his time in the bullpen. He's a solid insurance
policy. Eager Sox fans wonder why he wasn't sent to Class AAA Charlotte to stay
sharp as a starter until he's needed in Chicago. That might happen if McCarthy
builds rust in the bullpen, but at this stage of his career, it's more important
he learn how to handle major-league hitters. You can bet manager Ozzie Guillen
and Cooper will search for plenty of opportunities to keep McCarthy sharp.
THE CUBS
Carlos Zambrano
Younger than Prior and Wood, Zambrano, 25, has proved to be more reliable
than his heralded teammates. The hard-throwing 6-5 right-hander has avoided the
arm trouble that seems to go along with being a young Cubs pitcher. His back
raised concerns last season, but Zambrano arrived in camp looking considerably
thinner. Opponents raved about the nastiness of his pitches during the World
Baseball Classic last month. He truly is the Cubs' staff ace and enters 2006
with the most realistic chance of any Cub to reach 20 wins. Here's a safe bet:
He will win a Cy Young Award before Prior or Wood.
Glendon Rusch
His numbers out of the bullpen shouted that the left-hander was much more
suited for starting duty. He's getting his chance this season. Rusch would be a
suitable fifth starter, whose turn you could skip on occasion, but the Prior and
Wood injuries have thrust him into a much more high-level spot. Rusch is coming
off consecutive winning seasons for the first time in his career. But he can be
a streaky pitcher -- dropping seven consecutive decisions from June 12 to Aug.
31. Since coming to the Cubs in 2004, Rusch has gone 11-9 with a 3.94 ERA in 35
starts.
Greg Maddux
The former ace of the staff turns 40 on April 14, but his age has yet to
stand in the way of him being the most durable member of the Cubs' rotation. His
numbers are showing his age, with his ERA rising along with his home-run totals
since his return to the Cubs before the 2004 season. That said, it's hard to
believe Maddux is slowing down. His ERA last season looked better after the
All-Star break, going from 4.67 to 3.79. He also pitched three complete games
after the break, with none before the All-Star Game. He was supposed to be a
fifth starter since returning to the Cubs, but he has joined Zambrano to be one
of the workhorses.
Sean Marshall
The 6-5, 190-pound left-hander mastered the ability to mix a baffling curve
with an effective sinker in the minors. But the 23-year-old who is making a
giant leap to the big leagues has suffered a typical problem among Cubs pitching
prospects. His promising career keeps hitting speed bumps because of injuries.
He could be a Band-Aid until Prior and Wood are ready or he could knock Rusch
out of the rotation by midseason. Marshall's durability will decide his future.
Jerome Williams
Easing him into the rotation as the fifth starter who will serve in a
swingman role out of the bullpen in April might be the best thing for the
24-year-old. Williams, who underwent elbow surgery in August 2004, is still
trying to get a feel for putting away major-league hitters. One big inning
consistently did him in during spring training. Unfortunately, it was usually
the first inning.
Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller
If you use Howry's When Healthy Factor, these three pitchers recovering from
shoulder problems could act as No. 1 starters on many staffs. The problem for
Prior and Wood is they haven't filled that role since 2003. Prior has the most
to offer. His future was so brilliant in 2003, when as a cocky 22-year-old, he
went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. He wasn't just the staff's future ace, but could have
been the resident Cy Young winner in the National League for the next decade.
Injuries have altered that course, and he has a combined 17 victories since that
magical 2003 season. Wood's history of arm problems should put him on a tight
leash: One more arm problem, and he's off to the bullpen, no questions asked.
Miller would wind up being a pleasant surprise, though history has shown players
coming off shoulder surgery do better the season after they return.
